Our 2014-15 NBA Predictions: Who Will Win the Championship This Season?

You know, every year around this time I get that familiar itch – the one that makes me pull out my notebook and start scribbling down NBA predictions. This season feels particularly special though, maybe because we've got some intriguing new team dynamics and players moving around. So let me walk you through how I approach making my 2014-15 NBA championship predictions, because honestly, it's become somewhat of an annual ritual for me that's evolved over time.

First things first, I always start by looking at the offseason moves. This year, LeBron returning to Cleveland changes everything – we're talking about a 25-win improvement minimum for that team, mark my words. Then you've got Chicago getting Pau Gasol, which gives them that low-post scoring they desperately needed last season. What I typically do is create a spreadsheet tracking all major player movements and assign numerical values to each transaction. I know it sounds nerdy, but it helps me visualize the shifting balance of power across both conferences. The key here is to not just look at star power but how pieces fit together – remember the Lakers' superteam that never quite clicked? Exactly.

Now here's where it gets interesting, and I'm going to reference something that might seem unrelated but stick with me. There's this quote from volleyball that's always stuck with me: "I don't know exactly [why] but for sure, it's the only name that you're gonna miss in this preparation for the SEA V.League." That perfectly captures how I feel about San Antonio this season. Everyone's counting them out because they're older, but there's something about their system and chemistry that you just can't quantify. They're the name people might overlook in their championship predictions, but man, would you regret leaving them out come playoff time.

My method involves watching at least 5 preseason games from each contender – not just casually, but taking notes on offensive sets, defensive rotations, and how coaches utilize their benches. For instance, I noticed Golden State running more pick-and-rolls with Curry and Bogut, which could increase their offensive efficiency by at least 3-4 points per game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City's defense without Durant early in the season concerns me – they gave up 108 points to Denver in that preseason game I watched, which is troubling.

What most prediction models miss is the human element. Having followed the league for fifteen years, I've learned that championship teams have a certain vibe you can sense by December. Last year, I knew Miami wasn't repeating after watching their body language during that Christmas game. This season, I'm getting strong vibes from Chicago – their defensive intensity in preseason was off the charts, holding opponents to under 42% shooting. But my heart says Cleveland will figure it out by playoff time because LeBron in his home state with Kyrie and Love? That's scary.

The statistical analysis part requires balancing advanced metrics with good old-fashioned observation. I calculate what I call "Championship Probability Score" using factors like roster continuity (weighted 30%), star player efficiency (25%), coaching (20%), and defensive rating (25%). Based on my current calculations, San Antonio scores 88/100, Cleveland 85, Chicago 83, and Oklahoma City 81 when Durant returns. But numbers don't tell the whole story – if they did, the Mavericks wouldn't have beaten Miami in 2011.

Here's my controversial take: I'm betting against the Spurs repeating. History shows only three franchises have repeated since 2000, and the wear-and-tear of back-to-back seasons is real. Tim Duncan is 38, Manu 37 – that's a lot of miles on those legs. My dark horse is actually the Clippers, who I believe will finally break through to the conference finals this year. Their bench depth improved dramatically, adding Farmar and Hawes, giving them what I estimate to be 12-15 more productive bench minutes per game.

When making final predictions, I always simulate the playoffs in my head considering potential matchups. The Western Conference is brutal – I count at least six legitimate contenders. The East feels more stratified, with maybe three teams having real shots. Home court advantage matters more than people think – teams with home court win playoff series 78% of the time according to my tracking over the past decade.

So after all this analysis, my heart says Cleveland but my head says Chicago. The Bulls have the defense, the coaching, and now the offensive weapons. But you know what? I'm going with my gut this year. There's something special about storylines, and LeBron bringing a championship to Cleveland would be the stuff of legends. That's why for Our 2014-15 NBA Predictions: Who Will Win the Championship This Season?, I'm picking the Cavaliers over the Bulls in six games. It might not be the safest bet, but championships aren't won on paper – they're won on courts, and sometimes in the hearts of players chasing destiny.